The echoing sound of “You’ve Got Mail” faded this summer as Google’s Gmail powered past AOL and captured the third place position among email servers.

With a growth rate of 46% over the past year some are saying Gmail will overtake Windows Live Mail/HotMail at the number 2 position by early in 2010. Possibly even as early as Feb. 2010.


Leader Board
Position Name Traffic Movement
Win Yahoo Mail 106 Million Up 22%
Place Windows Live 47 Million Holding
Show Gmail 37 Million Up 46%
4th Place AOL 36.4 Million Dn 19%

No one expects Yahoo and Windows Live Mail to sit and watch as Gmail rushes to capture even more of the market, but I’m betting the biggest block to Gmail growth is going to be the popularity of Windows 7.


While in theory Windows 7 will arrive on October 22nd without an included email application, Microsoft provides prominent links to Windows Live essentials including Live Mail in the Windows 7 Start menu. Whipping to hold position, Windows Live is an immediate optional update and is also seen on the welcome screen suggestions for New Users.


If that weren’t enough, system makers like Dell are preloading Windows Live essentials on most consumer and small business PCs. So while Windows 7 does ship without an email program, Microsoft has made sure you won’t miss the chance to load Windows Live Mail.
I’m expecting the immediate popularity of Windows 7 and the subsequent installation of all things LIVE to satiate our gluttony for Gmail.


I’m going against all the handicappers and predicting that while there will be some changes in the numbers, the positions will remain the same.

#1 Yahoo Email

#2 Windows Live/ Hot Mail

#3 Gmail

#4 AOL Mail

This is the race to watch for the next 6 months. AOL Mail should remain at 4th but is fading fast. I’ll revisit this topic again in March to see if I’m correct.

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